English Premier League
Free Pick #1:
Manchester City vs Swansea UNDER 2.5 goals (+110) Take 5 units to win 5.5 units
Pick Analysis: Of the 8 EPL games this weekend only 2 went over the 2.5 Total, as Bolton won 4-0, and Manchester United needed a 81st min. own goal by West Bromwich to go get their 2-1 victory that went over the total. We expect to get a great defensive game from Swansea, who will be making their EPL debut tonight, against Manchester City, who has had it’s series of offseason distractions as Carlos Tevez has asked to get his release from the club, but Manchester City did not make any moves. This game will be a battle between in midfield, and goals will be hard to come about tonight. I do expect Tevez to possibly find the back of the net, once, but other than that, expect less than 3 goals in tonight’s featured game. Risk a max 5% of your bankroll on the UNDER 2.5 goals.
Free Pick #2:
Houston Texans vs New York Jets OVER 34.5 (-110) (Risk 4.4 units to win 4 units)
Milwaukee Brewers ML (-162) over Los Angeles Dodgers. (Risk 16.2 units to win 10 units)
Pick Analysis: Brewers have been so money at home this season, and Ted Lilly has been the Dodgers’ worst pitcher this season. Randy Wolf is 5-2 this season when he pitches at home, and we expect him to continue his winning ways at home. He has won his last 3 home starts. Ted Lilly is 2-5 in his road starts his season, and has lost his last 3 road starts, as the Dodgers have given him 5 runs total in run support in his last 3 road starts. Expect the Brewers to score first and often, and therefore we guarantee a victory for the Brewers today. Risk to win 10 units on the Brewers tonight.
Premium Play #1:
Minnesota Twins ML (+136) over Detroit Tigers. (Risk 5 units to win 6.8 units)
Pick Analysis: Hard to believe that Francisco Liriano pitched a no-hitter early this year, as the Twins have only won 9 of his 21 starts this season. Last time Liriano pitched against the Tigers he lasted 2.1 innings, in a 2-5 home loss. This is a revenge spot for the Twins who have struggled as of late, and will need Liriano’s best stuff in order to outduel Detroit’s Porcello. We expect the Twins to take advantage of this spot, and to hit Porcello well tonight. This is a risky play, but sometimes it takes some big balls to KaSh, so we will risk 5 units on this underdog, and hopefully we can get the best of the situation tonight.
Premium Play #2:
Oakland A’s ML (-167) over Baltimore Orioles (Risk 5 units to win 3.01 units)
Pick Analysis: Gio Gonzalez has struggled as of late, losing his last 4 starts. However, Gio Gonzalez is still 7-3 in his 10 home starts this season, and will have the opportunity to get back to his winning ways as the Baltimore Orioles come to town, and this is a perfect chance for Gio Gonzalez to get his first win in over a month! Risk 5 units on the A’s to win tonight.
Premium Play #3
Florida Marlins vs Colorado Rockies OVER 9.5 Runs (-120) (Risk 6 units to win 5 units)
Pick Analysis: Clay Hensley will be on the road facing off against Kevin Millwood in a hitter’s ballpark tonight, and this game will go over the total before the 6th inning. The Florida Marlins have a young lineup, but have the ability to score runs in these types of environment and ballpark. Rockies ballpark is known for OVERS, as Games average 10.54 runs a game so far this season in Coors Field. This is strictly a system play, and therefore we recommend to risk to win 5 units over the OVER 9.5 runs in this matchup.
Premium Play #4:
New York Mets vs San Diego Padres OVER 7 Runs (+100) (Risk 5 units to win 5 units)
Pick Analysis: Really nice pitching matchup between Dickey and Harang in San Diego tonight, however, the last 6 starts by Harang have gone over the total, 7 of his 10 home starts have gone over the total, and 13 of his 19 starts this season have gone over the total. Harang has an ERA of 3.95, and faces R.A. Dickey, who also tends to have games go over the Total, as 7 of his 12 road have gone over, and the Mets have given Dickey very good run support as of late. Risk 5 units on the OVER 7 in this match up.