Category Archives: WA Free Picks

The place to go for our free selections across all sports. Saturday May 7th is the first day our picks will be posted daily, and we will have a comprehensive running list of our past selections.

Winning Addict’s Premium Card Tuesday, August 16th

1) Philadelphia Phillies RL –1.5 –110 (Risk 11 units to win 10 units) 7:05 P.M. EST

This D’Backs team has won 6 straight games and looks game to upset the World Champion San Francisco Giants in the NL West.  Their pitching has been solid, and Justin Upton has been carrying this team offensively without star shortstop Stephen Drew.  However, after they are finally starting to get some national media attention, I expect a falloff starting tonight with a tough matchup against Roy Halladay and the Major League’s best Philadelphia Phillies.  Josh Collmenter has struggled lately, although he did piece together a nice start in his last outing against a terrible Houston team.  He will not find much success tonight against this very deep Phillies lineup, and I expect Roy Halladay to continue his domination of this Arizona franchise.  Halladay will go deep into the game tonight and the Phils offense will score early to support him, so don’t be bashful about laying the 1.5 runs and win a big time 10 units tonight!

2) Florida Marlins +145 (Risk 5 units to win 7.25 units) 8:40 P.M. EST

3) San Diego Padres –130 (Risk 6.5 units to win 5 units) 10:05 P.M. EST

4) Washington Nationals +118 (Risk 5 units to win 5.9 units) 7:05 P.M. EST

5) St. Louis Cardinals –140 (Risk 5.6 units to win 4 units) 7:05 P.M. EST

6) Tampa Bay Rays +145 [Game 2] (Risk 5 units to win 7.25 units) 7:10 P.M. EST

7) UNDER 8 Baltimore/Oakland [even money] (Risk 4 units to win 4 units) 10:05 P.M. EST

8 ) UNDER 7.5 LA Dodgers/Milwaukee [even money] (Risk 4 units to win 4 units

9) OVER 8.5 Texas/LA Angels –110 (Risk 4.4 units to win 4 units) 10:05 P.M. EST

10) Atlanta Dream Pick +1 –110 (Risk 5.5 units to win 5 units) 10:35 P.M. EST

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Winning Addict’s Premium Early Winner Tuesday, August 16th

OVER 8 Tampa Bay/Boston –105 (Risk 4.2 units to win 4 units) 1:05 P.M. EST

I know two great pitchers are squaring off in this one, but James Shields has always had trouble keeping this Red Sox team down, and Jon Lester has actually had his struggles this year at home.  Lester is 3-4 with a 3.93 ERA at home this season.  Lester has not won a home start since May 20th vs the Chicago Cubs! I know, absolutely hard to imagine.  Shields is 6-10 in his career vs Boston, and while his ERA is 2.80 his season, his road ERA is a relatively fat 3.66.  The biggest reason I love this over is simply the fact that the Sox hit terribly in their past 2 losses in Seattle, and I expect much better today at Fenway—a place where they always crush the ball.  Shields threw a complete game shutout in his last outing in a 4-0 win over Kansas City, but he threw 117 pitches.  Shields has not responded well in starts followed by outings in which he throws 115+ pitches.  Both of these teams really work starting pitchers to get into the opposition’s bullpens, and I expect that to happen today.  And when the Tampa Bay bullpen comes in at Fenway—eeeeh.  I feel strongly about this over play so win 4 units with some nice value on this over.

Winning Addict’s Premium Plays Monday, August 15th

1) St. Louis Cardinals -128 (Risk 6.4 units to win 5 units) 7:05 P.M. EST

2) Chicago Cubs -115 (Risk 5.75 units to win 5 units) 8:05 P.M. EST

3) San Francisco Giants +145 (Risk 4 units to win 5.8 units) 7:00 P.M. EST

4) OVER 9.5 New York/Kansas City [even money] Risk 4 units to win 4 units 8:10 P.M. EST

5) New York Mets -105 (Risk 4.2 units to win 4 units) 10:05 P.M. EST

6) Florida Marlins +138 (Risk 3 units to win 4.14 units) 8:40 P.M. EST

Winning Addict’s Premium Plays Sunday, August 14th

I hope everyone enjoyed the soccer winner this morning!! We had the UNDER 2.5 in Chelsea /Stoke City and the game tied 0-0! Safe to say we were on that one.

Here is today’s 4 pack of MLB plays and WNBA play.

Boston Red Sox -162 (Risk 8.1 units to win 5 units) 4:10 P.M. EST

Normally I would say this price is much too steep for Tim Wakefield, but considering the circumstances, I think this price is ripe to be hammered today. This Red Sox team wants to win the division, no doubt about it, and losing to the Seattle Mariners will not help. It took a perfect storm for Seattle to beat Boston last night: 5 first inning runs, then a Houdini-like act from Felix Hernandez to pitch around the best lineup in baseball. With all that said, the Red Sox still had to hit into 3 double plays and have Darnell McDonald caught trying to steal 2nd in a huge spot. With all that said, the Red Sox lost by 1 run. Forget about that happening today. Tim Wakefield is going to pick up win #200 today, because Charlie Furbush has about as much of a chance of beating the Red Sox as I do of screwing my tennis dream lover Ana Ivanovic. Wakefield has not been great this year by any means, but this Seattle team has scored the fewest runs in the American League, and don’t kid yourself—it isn’t like Safeco Field is an excuse. This team can’t hit—Period. If Wakefield goes out and tosses 5-6 innings of 2-3 run baseball, something very doable in my eyes, the Red Sox will support him and then some. He has been the benefactor of Red Sox offense his entire career, and in a game the Red Sox need and one that Seattle will forget, this one is going to Boston. Win 5 units.

Milwaukee Brewers -179 (Risk 8.95 units to win 5 units) 2:10 P.M. EST

Charlie Morton continues to cost me money, and I am going to continue to bet against him. His career ERA in the daytime is 7.44, and his record is 2-11 in those starts. 2-11!! For whatever reason, he does not like to pitch during the day. This Milwaukee team is the best home team in baseball, as they score runs as a blistering pace with homer after homer, and their pitchers feel much more comfortable in the friendly confines of Miller Park. Shaun Marcum is a very talented pitcher that has battled injuries throughout his career, but when he puts it all together he is damn good. His first (and only)start against Pittsburgh was a huge success this year, a game in which I bet the under and won 6-0 when the Brew Crew beat Kevin Correja. Marcum is 5-1 at home, and I expect him to be absolutely lights out today, as the Pirates offense continues to slump—as they were shut out yesterday. I doubt Milwaukee will be held down again like Correja did yesterday, so let’s take the Brewers and watch them break out the bats in style. Charlie Morton is 0-4 in his career against Milwaukee with a stellar 8.31 ERA. He has given up 26 hits and 20 runs in 17.1 innings against them. Eeeh. He has only pitched at Miller Park once and it was one he wanted to forget—3.1 innings giving up 9 hits and 8 runs. You get the picture? Win 5 units and lay the juice. Juice only stings when you lose J

Detroit Tigers -136 (Risk 6.8 units to win 5 units) 1:35 P.M. EST

I must admit, I love me some Doug Fister. Since I pitched in college for a school that was perennially at the bottom of our conference, I understand the frustration that accompanies no run support. It feels like Jennifer Aniston just walked into your lonely Las Vegas hotel room and then you can’t get it up. Seriously. So let’s acknowledge the fact that Fister (he has a great last name for a laundry list of sexual jokes, but I am done with those for this write up. E-mail us at winningaddicts@gmail.com for more immature analysis) is very motivated to be pitching for Detroit. His first outing was a win vs Texas, and I expect today to be similar, with him getting run support against lowly Jo-Jo Reyes. Reyes, like Charlie Morton, is also 2-11 in his career in daytime starts, but his ERA is much more ideal at 7.14 😉 Anyway, there is a reason Reyes is 10-24 in his career, and it isn’t because he is good. The Indians are starting to pick it back up so the Tigers know that sweeping Baltimore is the only option. Win 5 units.

UNDER 8 Chicago (NL)/Atlanta -120 (Risk 4.8 units to win 4 units) 1:35 P.M. EST

I grabbed this line early in the day when the lines were released, and it is still available at select sportsbooks. Matt Garza is a good pitcher. He has 13 quality starts this season, but his team has only given him 3 wins among those starts. He has pitched well vs Atlanta in his career, and the guy knows how to get good hitters out. His stuff is electric, but the key for him is keeping guys off the bases, because he gets very angry at himself when he makes mistakes within the strike zone and tends to lose his cool. Keeping Michael Bourn off the bases is the key to victory for Chicago today. On the other side, Brandon Beachy is a solid young rook with huge potential. He throws hard and he is sneaky fast with the way he hides the ball longer with his short-arm motion (like Keith Foulke), and his curveball is nasty. The Cubs played a good game yesterday, but rarely do they follow up a good offensive performance with another one—so I’m taking this under today, as I don’t think Garza will have much trouble keeping the Atlanta hitters in check today. Garza is 2-3 with a 3.31 ERA during the day this year, which is opposed to a 4.15 at night. Win 4 units on the under.

Chicago Sky +6 -110 (Risk 5.5 units to win 5 units) 3:00 P.M. EST

When looking at the numbers, you have to be wondering why I am picking this game. They Sky are 10-14 and 2-9 on the road, while the Silver Stars are 13-9 and 6-4 at home. One stat folks: the Silver Stars rank last in the WNBA collecting only 37.4 rebounds per game. Why is that big? The WNBA’s best post player is Sylvia Fowles, who is 4th in the league in scoring, is also the league’s best rebounder, and she is going to dominate today for her team—a team with its backs against the wall. After Atlanta won last night to improve to 11-12, this Sky team knows that dropping to 10-15 could virtually end their season. With that in mind, they will be throwing everything at th4e Silver Stars that they can. San Antonio’s loss of Danielle Adams hurts their ability to rebound even more, plus she is an additional scoring threat and nice compliment to Sophia Young and Becky Hammon. Take the Chicago Sky to win 5 units.

Minnesota Lynx (1st H) –9.5 –110 (Risk 4.4 units to win 4 units) 7:00 P.M. EST

The Lynx are playing the worst team in the WNBA, the Tulsa Shock, who come in with  1-21 record and have lost 16 straight.  The Lynx happen to be coming in at 17-5, the league’s best, and they are so much better than this Shock team that this 9.5 won’t seem like anything at all.  The Lynx have 7 players who are more talented than any one player Tulsa has, so I look for this to be a 25 point blowout.  The only thing keeping me from giving the –16.5 for the full game is simply the fact that I’ve seen the Lynx lead by 24 after 3 quarters, only to see their lead slip away in the 4th quarter to win by 13-15.  Take the 1st Half line and pick up 4 units.

Winning Addict’s Early Soccer Release Sunday, August 14th

UNDER 2.5 Goals Chelsea/Stoke City –110 (Risk 4.4 units to win 4 units) 8:30 A.M. EST

Chelsea is very weak in the midfield with all the absences they have right now, and this Stoke City team is for real—they are tough and physical and don’t give up anything easy.  All but two Week 1 gams went under the total yesterday, and I can’t see this game being more than 1-0 or 1-1.  It is no secret Chelsea had a brutal season last year, and I’m not sure they are ready to be fully recovered.  Hell, Stoke City might even find a way to steal this one.  Either way, I can’t see 3 goals in this one.  Win 4 units on the under.

Winning Addict’s Free Play Thursday, June 9th

Washington Nationals/San Diego Padres OVER 6.5 runs –115 (Risk 1.15 units to win 1 unit) 10:05 P.M. EST

Livan Hernandez is so far past his prime it isn’t even funny any more, and the fact that he was the opening day starter for the Nationals this year is hilarious.  Aaron Harang is not quite as far past his prime, but it is still long gone.  Both of these offenses are really struggling.  I actually think the Nationals can hit a little bit, but the Padres long for better days.  Either way, 6.5 runs is extremely low for these old, washed up has beens.  I love them both, and I would not be afraid to back them if I thought the value and spot was right—but the spot here is the OVER.  The Padres have called up their phenom at first base Anthony Rizzo, and I fully expect Petco Park and the Padres alike to be energized and excited to beat the heck out of Livan Hernandez tonight.  And the Nationals are not going to hit poorly forever, but they just went to San Francisco—and no one scores runs there.  Take the over 6.5 for 1 unit.

Yes this guy is still pitching.

Yep, him too.

Winning Addict’s Free Pick Wednesday, June 8th

MLB: 52-30-1 (+45.32 units)

This MLB streak I am on is the hottest streak I’ve seen in recent memory.  I am winning even when I do not make the right pick—and I will never be afraid to admit that.  For example, I had the UNDER 7.5 runs in the Seattle/Chicago White Sox game tonight.  It was 5-1 after 4 innings of play, so it obviously was not looking good.  I am not saying it was just luck, because Phil Humber and Felix Hernandez are both very good pitchers; however, it is crazy to think that 5 scoreless innings should have happened as easily as they did.  But lately the gambling/investing gods have been on my side, and I love it.  Sort of like how that Yanks/Angels game stayed under 8.5 Sunday, as the game finished 5-3 when Torii Hunter grounded into a double play to end it.  Lets stay on top of the wave with this free pick tonight.

UNDER 8.5 Oakland Athletics/Baltimore Orioles –110 (Risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit) 7:05 P.M. EST

Josh Outman has been very solid in his brief Major League career, although he was roughed up in his last outing at Boston over the weekend, but who hasn’t been roughed up at Fenway Park at least once in their career? He pitched great against these same Orioles at home a couple of weeks back, and I am looking for more of the same. He has been a solid road pitcher, as he took down the mighty Jared Weaver in Anaheim, and the guy finds a way to get outs with his below average fastball but sharp 12 to 6 curveball.  On the other side, Zach Britton has been stinking lately, as many rookies do after the league starts to gameplan against them and exploit their weaknesses.  Britton has been pitching from behind in the count, and it doesn’t matter if you are Roger Clemens at age 40 on super steroids, if you don’t throw strikes and get ahead in the count, you are going to get hit.  This is the big leagues.  In today’s game, I think Britton will survive even if he is behind more than he should be, because this Oakland team can’t hit at all.  They are about as effective as that kid in the VW commercial who is trying to break the piñata with his whiffle ball bat.  Anyway, enough jokes.  I don’t love this play because if I did, you wouldn’t have the pleasure of reading this jovial write up (without forking over a whopping $5 or $10 to read the write up for a premium or guaranteed pick).  However, it is worth 1% of the bankroll, so sit back and grab a Dos Equis and think about how cool it would be if you actually were the most interesting man in the world.