I hope everyone enjoyed the soccer winner this morning!! We had the UNDER 2.5 in Chelsea /Stoke City and the game tied 0-0! Safe to say we were on that one.
Here is today’s 4 pack of MLB plays and WNBA play.
Boston Red Sox -162 (Risk 8.1 units to win 5 units) 4:10 P.M. EST
Normally I would say this price is much too steep for Tim Wakefield, but considering the circumstances, I think this price is ripe to be hammered today. This Red Sox team wants to win the division, no doubt about it, and losing to the Seattle Mariners will not help. It took a perfect storm for Seattle to beat Boston last night: 5 first inning runs, then a Houdini-like act from Felix Hernandez to pitch around the best lineup in baseball. With all that said, the Red Sox still had to hit into 3 double plays and have Darnell McDonald caught trying to steal 2nd in a huge spot. With all that said, the Red Sox lost by 1 run. Forget about that happening today. Tim Wakefield is going to pick up win #200 today, because Charlie Furbush has about as much of a chance of beating the Red Sox as I do of screwing my tennis dream lover Ana Ivanovic. Wakefield has not been great this year by any means, but this Seattle team has scored the fewest runs in the American League, and don’t kid yourself—it isn’t like Safeco Field is an excuse. This team can’t hit—Period. If Wakefield goes out and tosses 5-6 innings of 2-3 run baseball, something very doable in my eyes, the Red Sox will support him and then some. He has been the benefactor of Red Sox offense his entire career, and in a game the Red Sox need and one that Seattle will forget, this one is going to Boston. Win 5 units.
Milwaukee Brewers -179 (Risk 8.95 units to win 5 units) 2:10 P.M. EST
Charlie Morton continues to cost me money, and I am going to continue to bet against him. His career ERA in the daytime is 7.44, and his record is 2-11 in those starts. 2-11!! For whatever reason, he does not like to pitch during the day. This Milwaukee team is the best home team in baseball, as they score runs as a blistering pace with homer after homer, and their pitchers feel much more comfortable in the friendly confines of Miller Park. Shaun Marcum is a very talented pitcher that has battled injuries throughout his career, but when he puts it all together he is damn good. His first (and only)start against Pittsburgh was a huge success this year, a game in which I bet the under and won 6-0 when the Brew Crew beat Kevin Correja. Marcum is 5-1 at home, and I expect him to be absolutely lights out today, as the Pirates offense continues to slump—as they were shut out yesterday. I doubt Milwaukee will be held down again like Correja did yesterday, so let’s take the Brewers and watch them break out the bats in style. Charlie Morton is 0-4 in his career against Milwaukee with a stellar 8.31 ERA. He has given up 26 hits and 20 runs in 17.1 innings against them. Eeeh. He has only pitched at Miller Park once and it was one he wanted to forget—3.1 innings giving up 9 hits and 8 runs. You get the picture? Win 5 units and lay the juice. Juice only stings when you lose J
Detroit Tigers -136 (Risk 6.8 units to win 5 units) 1:35 P.M. EST
I must admit, I love me some Doug Fister. Since I pitched in college for a school that was perennially at the bottom of our conference, I understand the frustration that accompanies no run support. It feels like Jennifer Aniston just walked into your lonely Las Vegas hotel room and then you can’t get it up. Seriously. So let’s acknowledge the fact that Fister (he has a great last name for a laundry list of sexual jokes, but I am done with those for this write up. E-mail us at firstname.lastname@example.org for more immature analysis) is very motivated to be pitching for Detroit. His first outing was a win vs Texas, and I expect today to be similar, with him getting run support against lowly Jo-Jo Reyes. Reyes, like Charlie Morton, is also 2-11 in his career in daytime starts, but his ERA is much more ideal at 7.14 😉 Anyway, there is a reason Reyes is 10-24 in his career, and it isn’t because he is good. The Indians are starting to pick it back up so the Tigers know that sweeping Baltimore is the only option. Win 5 units.
UNDER 8 Chicago (NL)/Atlanta -120 (Risk 4.8 units to win 4 units) 1:35 P.M. EST
I grabbed this line early in the day when the lines were released, and it is still available at select sportsbooks. Matt Garza is a good pitcher. He has 13 quality starts this season, but his team has only given him 3 wins among those starts. He has pitched well vs Atlanta in his career, and the guy knows how to get good hitters out. His stuff is electric, but the key for him is keeping guys off the bases, because he gets very angry at himself when he makes mistakes within the strike zone and tends to lose his cool. Keeping Michael Bourn off the bases is the key to victory for Chicago today. On the other side, Brandon Beachy is a solid young rook with huge potential. He throws hard and he is sneaky fast with the way he hides the ball longer with his short-arm motion (like Keith Foulke), and his curveball is nasty. The Cubs played a good game yesterday, but rarely do they follow up a good offensive performance with another one—so I’m taking this under today, as I don’t think Garza will have much trouble keeping the Atlanta hitters in check today. Garza is 2-3 with a 3.31 ERA during the day this year, which is opposed to a 4.15 at night. Win 4 units on the under.
Chicago Sky +6 -110 (Risk 5.5 units to win 5 units) 3:00 P.M. EST
When looking at the numbers, you have to be wondering why I am picking this game. They Sky are 10-14 and 2-9 on the road, while the Silver Stars are 13-9 and 6-4 at home. One stat folks: the Silver Stars rank last in the WNBA collecting only 37.4 rebounds per game. Why is that big? The WNBA’s best post player is Sylvia Fowles, who is 4th in the league in scoring, is also the league’s best rebounder, and she is going to dominate today for her team—a team with its backs against the wall. After Atlanta won last night to improve to 11-12, this Sky team knows that dropping to 10-15 could virtually end their season. With that in mind, they will be throwing everything at th4e Silver Stars that they can. San Antonio’s loss of Danielle Adams hurts their ability to rebound even more, plus she is an additional scoring threat and nice compliment to Sophia Young and Becky Hammon. Take the Chicago Sky to win 5 units.
Minnesota Lynx (1st H) –9.5 –110 (Risk 4.4 units to win 4 units) 7:00 P.M. EST
The Lynx are playing the worst team in the WNBA, the Tulsa Shock, who come in with 1-21 record and have lost 16 straight. The Lynx happen to be coming in at 17-5, the league’s best, and they are so much better than this Shock team that this 9.5 won’t seem like anything at all. The Lynx have 7 players who are more talented than any one player Tulsa has, so I look for this to be a 25 point blowout. The only thing keeping me from giving the –16.5 for the full game is simply the fact that I’ve seen the Lynx lead by 24 after 3 quarters, only to see their lead slip away in the 4th quarter to win by 13-15. Take the 1st Half line and pick up 4 units.