Category Archives: WA Premium Picks

Winning Addict’s Premium Card Tuesday, August 16th

1) Philadelphia Phillies RL –1.5 –110 (Risk 11 units to win 10 units) 7:05 P.M. EST

This D’Backs team has won 6 straight games and looks game to upset the World Champion San Francisco Giants in the NL West.  Their pitching has been solid, and Justin Upton has been carrying this team offensively without star shortstop Stephen Drew.  However, after they are finally starting to get some national media attention, I expect a falloff starting tonight with a tough matchup against Roy Halladay and the Major League’s best Philadelphia Phillies.  Josh Collmenter has struggled lately, although he did piece together a nice start in his last outing against a terrible Houston team.  He will not find much success tonight against this very deep Phillies lineup, and I expect Roy Halladay to continue his domination of this Arizona franchise.  Halladay will go deep into the game tonight and the Phils offense will score early to support him, so don’t be bashful about laying the 1.5 runs and win a big time 10 units tonight!

2) Florida Marlins +145 (Risk 5 units to win 7.25 units) 8:40 P.M. EST

3) San Diego Padres –130 (Risk 6.5 units to win 5 units) 10:05 P.M. EST

4) Washington Nationals +118 (Risk 5 units to win 5.9 units) 7:05 P.M. EST

5) St. Louis Cardinals –140 (Risk 5.6 units to win 4 units) 7:05 P.M. EST

6) Tampa Bay Rays +145 [Game 2] (Risk 5 units to win 7.25 units) 7:10 P.M. EST

7) UNDER 8 Baltimore/Oakland [even money] (Risk 4 units to win 4 units) 10:05 P.M. EST

8 ) UNDER 7.5 LA Dodgers/Milwaukee [even money] (Risk 4 units to win 4 units

9) OVER 8.5 Texas/LA Angels –110 (Risk 4.4 units to win 4 units) 10:05 P.M. EST

10) Atlanta Dream Pick +1 –110 (Risk 5.5 units to win 5 units) 10:35 P.M. EST

Winning Addict’s Premium Early Winner Tuesday, August 16th

OVER 8 Tampa Bay/Boston –105 (Risk 4.2 units to win 4 units) 1:05 P.M. EST

I know two great pitchers are squaring off in this one, but James Shields has always had trouble keeping this Red Sox team down, and Jon Lester has actually had his struggles this year at home.  Lester is 3-4 with a 3.93 ERA at home this season.  Lester has not won a home start since May 20th vs the Chicago Cubs! I know, absolutely hard to imagine.  Shields is 6-10 in his career vs Boston, and while his ERA is 2.80 his season, his road ERA is a relatively fat 3.66.  The biggest reason I love this over is simply the fact that the Sox hit terribly in their past 2 losses in Seattle, and I expect much better today at Fenway—a place where they always crush the ball.  Shields threw a complete game shutout in his last outing in a 4-0 win over Kansas City, but he threw 117 pitches.  Shields has not responded well in starts followed by outings in which he throws 115+ pitches.  Both of these teams really work starting pitchers to get into the opposition’s bullpens, and I expect that to happen today.  And when the Tampa Bay bullpen comes in at Fenway—eeeeh.  I feel strongly about this over play so win 4 units with some nice value on this over.

Winning Addict’s Premium Plays Monday, August 15th

1) St. Louis Cardinals -128 (Risk 6.4 units to win 5 units) 7:05 P.M. EST

2) Chicago Cubs -115 (Risk 5.75 units to win 5 units) 8:05 P.M. EST

3) San Francisco Giants +145 (Risk 4 units to win 5.8 units) 7:00 P.M. EST

4) OVER 9.5 New York/Kansas City [even money] Risk 4 units to win 4 units 8:10 P.M. EST

5) New York Mets -105 (Risk 4.2 units to win 4 units) 10:05 P.M. EST

6) Florida Marlins +138 (Risk 3 units to win 4.14 units) 8:40 P.M. EST

Winning Addict’s Premium Plays Sunday, August 14th

I hope everyone enjoyed the soccer winner this morning!! We had the UNDER 2.5 in Chelsea /Stoke City and the game tied 0-0! Safe to say we were on that one.

Here is today’s 4 pack of MLB plays and WNBA play.

Boston Red Sox -162 (Risk 8.1 units to win 5 units) 4:10 P.M. EST

Normally I would say this price is much too steep for Tim Wakefield, but considering the circumstances, I think this price is ripe to be hammered today. This Red Sox team wants to win the division, no doubt about it, and losing to the Seattle Mariners will not help. It took a perfect storm for Seattle to beat Boston last night: 5 first inning runs, then a Houdini-like act from Felix Hernandez to pitch around the best lineup in baseball. With all that said, the Red Sox still had to hit into 3 double plays and have Darnell McDonald caught trying to steal 2nd in a huge spot. With all that said, the Red Sox lost by 1 run. Forget about that happening today. Tim Wakefield is going to pick up win #200 today, because Charlie Furbush has about as much of a chance of beating the Red Sox as I do of screwing my tennis dream lover Ana Ivanovic. Wakefield has not been great this year by any means, but this Seattle team has scored the fewest runs in the American League, and don’t kid yourself—it isn’t like Safeco Field is an excuse. This team can’t hit—Period. If Wakefield goes out and tosses 5-6 innings of 2-3 run baseball, something very doable in my eyes, the Red Sox will support him and then some. He has been the benefactor of Red Sox offense his entire career, and in a game the Red Sox need and one that Seattle will forget, this one is going to Boston. Win 5 units.

Milwaukee Brewers -179 (Risk 8.95 units to win 5 units) 2:10 P.M. EST

Charlie Morton continues to cost me money, and I am going to continue to bet against him. His career ERA in the daytime is 7.44, and his record is 2-11 in those starts. 2-11!! For whatever reason, he does not like to pitch during the day. This Milwaukee team is the best home team in baseball, as they score runs as a blistering pace with homer after homer, and their pitchers feel much more comfortable in the friendly confines of Miller Park. Shaun Marcum is a very talented pitcher that has battled injuries throughout his career, but when he puts it all together he is damn good. His first (and only)start against Pittsburgh was a huge success this year, a game in which I bet the under and won 6-0 when the Brew Crew beat Kevin Correja. Marcum is 5-1 at home, and I expect him to be absolutely lights out today, as the Pirates offense continues to slump—as they were shut out yesterday. I doubt Milwaukee will be held down again like Correja did yesterday, so let’s take the Brewers and watch them break out the bats in style. Charlie Morton is 0-4 in his career against Milwaukee with a stellar 8.31 ERA. He has given up 26 hits and 20 runs in 17.1 innings against them. Eeeh. He has only pitched at Miller Park once and it was one he wanted to forget—3.1 innings giving up 9 hits and 8 runs. You get the picture? Win 5 units and lay the juice. Juice only stings when you lose J

Detroit Tigers -136 (Risk 6.8 units to win 5 units) 1:35 P.M. EST

I must admit, I love me some Doug Fister. Since I pitched in college for a school that was perennially at the bottom of our conference, I understand the frustration that accompanies no run support. It feels like Jennifer Aniston just walked into your lonely Las Vegas hotel room and then you can’t get it up. Seriously. So let’s acknowledge the fact that Fister (he has a great last name for a laundry list of sexual jokes, but I am done with those for this write up. E-mail us at winningaddicts@gmail.com for more immature analysis) is very motivated to be pitching for Detroit. His first outing was a win vs Texas, and I expect today to be similar, with him getting run support against lowly Jo-Jo Reyes. Reyes, like Charlie Morton, is also 2-11 in his career in daytime starts, but his ERA is much more ideal at 7.14 😉 Anyway, there is a reason Reyes is 10-24 in his career, and it isn’t because he is good. The Indians are starting to pick it back up so the Tigers know that sweeping Baltimore is the only option. Win 5 units.

UNDER 8 Chicago (NL)/Atlanta -120 (Risk 4.8 units to win 4 units) 1:35 P.M. EST

I grabbed this line early in the day when the lines were released, and it is still available at select sportsbooks. Matt Garza is a good pitcher. He has 13 quality starts this season, but his team has only given him 3 wins among those starts. He has pitched well vs Atlanta in his career, and the guy knows how to get good hitters out. His stuff is electric, but the key for him is keeping guys off the bases, because he gets very angry at himself when he makes mistakes within the strike zone and tends to lose his cool. Keeping Michael Bourn off the bases is the key to victory for Chicago today. On the other side, Brandon Beachy is a solid young rook with huge potential. He throws hard and he is sneaky fast with the way he hides the ball longer with his short-arm motion (like Keith Foulke), and his curveball is nasty. The Cubs played a good game yesterday, but rarely do they follow up a good offensive performance with another one—so I’m taking this under today, as I don’t think Garza will have much trouble keeping the Atlanta hitters in check today. Garza is 2-3 with a 3.31 ERA during the day this year, which is opposed to a 4.15 at night. Win 4 units on the under.

Chicago Sky +6 -110 (Risk 5.5 units to win 5 units) 3:00 P.M. EST

When looking at the numbers, you have to be wondering why I am picking this game. They Sky are 10-14 and 2-9 on the road, while the Silver Stars are 13-9 and 6-4 at home. One stat folks: the Silver Stars rank last in the WNBA collecting only 37.4 rebounds per game. Why is that big? The WNBA’s best post player is Sylvia Fowles, who is 4th in the league in scoring, is also the league’s best rebounder, and she is going to dominate today for her team—a team with its backs against the wall. After Atlanta won last night to improve to 11-12, this Sky team knows that dropping to 10-15 could virtually end their season. With that in mind, they will be throwing everything at th4e Silver Stars that they can. San Antonio’s loss of Danielle Adams hurts their ability to rebound even more, plus she is an additional scoring threat and nice compliment to Sophia Young and Becky Hammon. Take the Chicago Sky to win 5 units.

Minnesota Lynx (1st H) –9.5 –110 (Risk 4.4 units to win 4 units) 7:00 P.M. EST

The Lynx are playing the worst team in the WNBA, the Tulsa Shock, who come in with  1-21 record and have lost 16 straight.  The Lynx happen to be coming in at 17-5, the league’s best, and they are so much better than this Shock team that this 9.5 won’t seem like anything at all.  The Lynx have 7 players who are more talented than any one player Tulsa has, so I look for this to be a 25 point blowout.  The only thing keeping me from giving the –16.5 for the full game is simply the fact that I’ve seen the Lynx lead by 24 after 3 quarters, only to see their lead slip away in the 4th quarter to win by 13-15.  Take the 1st Half line and pick up 4 units.

Winning Addict’s HUGE 4 PACK DOMINATOR Saturday, August 13th

Minnesota Twins +134 (Risk 5 units to win 6.7 units) 7:05 P.M. EST

Brian Duensing has undoubtedly had an inconsistent year for the Twins, but tonight he takes the hill vs a Cleveland team against which he has had a ton of success in his career. In 3 career starts he is 3-0 with a 3.20 ERA and looked great in his last outing against them allowing only run in 7 innings at home on April 23rd. Duensing is a left-hander who doesn’t throw very hard—the type of pitcher Cleveland has struggled with all season. Just looking back two weeks ago, Cleveland limped to two losses vs Danny Duffy and Jeff Francis, two Kansas city starters that haven’t had great seasons, but they didn’t have much trouble beating the Indians at Progressive Field. The Twins dropped a brutal 3-2 game last night after taking a 2-1 lead to the bottom of the 8th, only to see Glen Perkins allow the lead to evaporate. Josh Tomlin takes the mound for Cleveland tonight. He has an 11-5 record but a 4.08 ERA to go along with his nice record. He had a great start to the season, but he has not been the winning pitcher for his team since July 15th, an ugly 29 days ago. The Indians have lost 3 of his past 4 starts. Looking deeper into the numbers, he has a 5.06 ERA since the All-Star Break, as opposed to his 3.81 before the break. Tomlin only has 14 strikeouts in 32 innings in the 2nd half, and teams are hitting a solid .262 against him. I really like the value in the Twins tonight, and considering the Indians are well below .500 since the great start to their year, this number can’t be passed up.

Kansas City Royals +143 (Risk 4 units to win 5.72 units) 8:10 P.M. EST

For whatever reason, this White Sox team cannot win a game at home. They dropped 4 straight to the Yankees last week in ugly fashion, then they followed it up with a great 6-1 road trip, only to come home yesterday and lose to the lowly Royals. The Sox are 58-60 overall but just 24-33 overall, and they should not be laying this huge number tonight—I don’t care how bad the Royals’ 19-37 road record looks. Luke Hochevar has an 8-8 record this season and sports a 4.79 ERA. All things considered, an 8-8 record isn’t bad on a team that is 19 games under .500 entering the night. While the ERA seems high, he has been excellent in his last 3 outings, going 21 1/3 innings and giving up only 4 runs. Consider this—he has not been the losing pitcher in a game since June 21st. This is the Royals we are talking about here. They lost his last outing 2-1 in Tampa Bay, a game in which he threw 7 innings in and gave up 5 hits and 1 run. Before that game, Kansas City had won 7 straight games in which Hochevar had started. This kid was the 1st overall pick in the 2006 MLB Draft from Tennessee, and he is just now starting to come into his own as a starter in the bigs. On the other side tonight, Jake Peavy starts for Chicago coming off his best outing of the season Sunday in Minnesota, a game in which he went 8 innings and gave up only 3 hits. He threw 108 pitches in his last outing, and I doubt his battered arm will respond well. Peavy is a fighter and a great competitor, but it doesn’t change the fast that he is just 5-5 with a 4.63 ERA. Before his last outing in Minnesota, the Sox had lost his last 5 outings. He has not pitched well at home this season, another reason for Chicago’s struggled at U.S. Cellular Field. He is 3-4 with a 5.12 ERA at home, and I don’t expect those numbers to improve tonight. He is 0-2 against Kansas City this season with a 6.00 ERA. I actually think the wrong team is favored tonight. Take the Royals to win once again in Chicago tonight and risk 4% of your bankroll.

New York Liberty +7.5 -110 (Risk 5.5 units to win 5 units) 7:05 P.M. EST

The Liberty gave away a 60-51 lead last night in Washington, missing a layup in the final seconds and scoring only 4 points over the final 6 minutes of the game. This Liberty team performed great the last time they played the 2nd game of a back to back, and I expect the same tonight against the Eastern Conference’s best team, the Indiana Fever. This New York team has alternated wins and losses their past 4 games, and I expect a big performance tonight coming off a 1 point loss to the worst team in the conference. New York has allowed only 65.0 points per game in their past 4 outings, which is a huge surge over their normal 76.0 that they have given up throughout the season. They have played better defense and the pace of their games has been much slower, yet another reason to love the fact that we are getting a whopping 7.5 points in this game. The Fever is 10-2 at home this season, but their only meeting with New York ended in an 81-80 defeat. These two teams always make classics when they get together, and I expect tonight to be no different, and either way, the Liberty are covering that 7.5 point spread. Win 5 units on New York.

Atlanta Dream +7 -110 (Risk 5.5 units to win 5 units) 10:05 P.M. EST

The Atlanta Dream have been one of the WNBA’s hottest teams in the months of July and August. They have won 7 of their past 10 games after starting 3-9, and let’s not forget—this team did go to the WNBA Finals last year. The team they faced? The Seattle Storm, who oppose them tonight. They played 3 great games in the Finals last season, and with the Dream getting 7 points in this one, I don’t know how anyone can pass up this value. They are coming off a 109-95 loss in Phoenix, a game in which they got behind early and never cut the deficit. Angel McCoughtry, the league’s 2nd leading scorer at 20.1 points per game, has scored 30 points per game in their past 5 road games, and if she gets even close to that tonight—Atlanta is easily going to cover this spread. Seattle is not a team that can blow you out, so I don’t understand why this line is so steep. They only average 71.9 points per game, while Atlanta averages 80.0 points per game. All signs point to Atlanta in this one, so let’s pick up another big road win and 5% more of our bankroll.

Winning Addict’s Premium Plays Friday, August 12th

MLB

Premium Pick 1

San Francisco Giants –113 (Risk 5.65 units to win 5 units) 7:05 P.M. EST

Matt Cain, as has happened in many of his starts over his early career, got no run support in his last outing.  He dropped the game 2-1 to the Phillies after giving up 2 in the first, the second of which was the deciding run—and it was unearned.  I look for him to respond in a big way tonight for a team that has theirs backs totally against the wall.  The Giants played yet another poor series of terribly offensive baseball at home against Pittsburgh, and now they head to the road to try to find themselves and move past Arizona for the NL West lead.  While I really like this young Marlins team (as if they ever have a veteran team), they have lost 7 straight and haven’t done it in style.  They have taken their share of bad beatings coupled with close losses in extra innings.  They haven’t had much timely hitting and their bullpen has let them down in big spots.  It doesn’t help they had the Braves and Cardinals roll through town.  Ricky Nolasco, historically a much better pitcher on the road, takes the hill tonight after two outings where he pitched around double digit hits against him.  He surrendered 12 to Atlanta and 10 more to St. Louis, but he has kept teams down.  Tonight, I think the Giants are finally going to break through against his slow curveball.  He has been behind in too many counts lately, which has led to the high hit total against him, and I think the Giants will finally scrape together some runs tonight to get this road trip off on the right foot.  This Giants team knows that the D’Backs they are looking up at aren’t going away anytime soon if last night’s ridiculous rally against Houston is any indication.  Don’t forget the Marlins are 3-10 in Nolasco’s last 13 starts.  Take the Giants to win my maximum 5 units tonight and pick up 5% of that bankroll.

WNBA

New York Liberty –3 –110 (Risk 4.4 units to win 4 units) 7:05 P.M. EST

This is an abnormally large amount of units for me to be throwing down on a WNBA game, but I don’t see the Liberty going down again to this weak Mystics team.  Washington recently learned that their star guard Alana Beard will be out for the rest of the season, yet another devastating blow to a team that came in to the season with high hopes before losing Beard and Monique Currie.  The Liberty have been up and down all season, and I think this team can sense heir opportunity after watching the Connecticut Sun throw up a terrible performance at home vs San Antonio, giving them their 8th loss.  The Liberty are only 1 game back in the loss column, and I expect that to stay the same with Cappie Pondexter and crew getting it done in the nation’s capital tonight.  Take the NY Liberty –3 to win 4 units.  Good luck.

Winning Addict’s Premium Picks Thursday, August 11th

MLB and WNBA today!

1) Cincinnati Reds –140 (Risk 7 units to win 5 units) 12:35 P.M. EST

2) UNDER 7.5 San Diego/New York –115 (Risk 5.75 units to win 5 units) 12:35 P.M. EST

3) Oakland Athletics +135 (Risk 4 units to win 5.4 units) 12:35 P.M. EST

4) UNDER 7.5 Detroit/Cleveland –110 (As Seen on BestSportsPicksToday.com) (Risk 4.4 units to win 4 units) 7:05 P.M. EST

5) Houston Astros +175 (Risk 2 units to win 3.5 units) 9:40 P.M. EST

6) New York Yankees RL –1.5 [even money] (Risk 3 units to win 3 units) 1:05 P.M. EST

 

WNBA

1) OVER 185.5 Atlanta/Phoenix –110 (Risk 4.4 units to win 4 units) 10:05 P.M. EST (Also my ESPN.com “Streak for the Cash” pick—streak now at 6!)

2) San Antonio Silver Stars +6 –110 (Risk 3.3 units to win 3 units) 7:05 P.M. EST